CONCLUSIONS

Substantial progress has been made over the past 30 years toward the eventual acceptance and integration of SC power components into the electric power system. High critical currents in superconductors have been demonstrated and manufactured, with the "older" LTS materials offering lower cost and improved manufacturability. HTS superconducting magnets have also been fabricated and successfully applied to a limited range of electric power applications, which have operated at temperatures as high as 50 K. SC power applications have definitely shown promising features -- improved system performance and projected lower life-cycle costs are the key parameters of interest to utilities. Commercialization and utility acceptance of these devices is ultimately dependent on their ability to obtain reliability and maintenance profiles comparable to those of conventional devices and on their ability to compete cost-effectively in the marketplace with conventional technology. The operational advantages and hoped-for improvement in reliability of HTS materials over LTS materials are the key factors for HTS integration. Use of HTS wire and tape in power devices is ultimately dependent on achieving acceptable performance -- i.e., in current, field, mechanical tolerance, and cost -- which has not yet been totally realized. This performance limitation will not prevent the fabrication and demonstration of HTS power components that are underway in the DOE SPI program; however, commercialization will dictate that both performance and cost issues be completely satisfied.

In the United States, the development thrust to build and introduce SC power devices is presently compromised by the reality that the majority of U.S. industrial companies are not able or willing to commit substantial R&D support to this technology. Coupled with this industrial constraint is the limited funding available from the federal sector, with only DOE and EPRI providing budgetary support specifically for SC power development.

Following the excitement of the HTS discovery, the U.S. Office of Technology Assessment conducted a study, published in 1988, Commercializing High Temperature Superconductors. It is fair to say that the recommendations for substantial federal funding for superconductivity, especially related to electric power development, have not been realized. It is also fair to say that one of the major concerns raised, that is, that "The scientific race is becoming a commercial race, one featuring U.S. and Japanese companies, and one that the United States could lose," is becoming even more serious as the 21st century approaches.

Congress in its FY98 budget deliberations has rallied to the need for expanded funding for SC electric power. This provides the United States with an enhanced ability to compete worldwide in this exciting new technology, which by 2030 could show widespread integration of superconducting components throughout the electric power system. Assuming modest market penetration over the next decade, the energy savings in fuel costs alone for motors and generators would approach ~$1.0 billion/year (Adelman and Blaugher 1993). The combined market for SC applications, which is ~$2.5 billion in 1995, could rise to nearly $100 billion by 2010 and double to ~$200 billion by 2020 (ISIS 1993). (These market projections are highly dependent on a projected increase in demand for capacity early in the next century, which is controversial.) U.S. utilities at present are in a "holding pattern" because of concern as to how they will be affected by ongoing deregulation. For the most part, they are deferring investment in expanded capacity for generation or transmission. Most of this uncertainty should be resolved by 2000, by which time the utilities are likely to need new generation and transmission equipment.

The Japanese especially are betting that this need will occur. Government planning in Japan is highly committed to advanced technology, as evidenced by the substantial government support for research on superconductivity. Most of this commitment is shared by the Japanese industrial sector, as evidenced by its willingness to cost-share most of the government programs. It is very clear, however, that the Japanese industrial companies will only continue to do this if their internal market projections and return on investment are consistent and support their research investment.

It is hard to predict what economic and environmental factors and other changes may occur globally or in the United States in the next decade to impact electric energy demand. Effects of deregulation on U.S. utilities and on the generation, transmission, distribution, and cost of electricity is unclear. The experience of large utilities in California, the first state to be deregulated, indicate that consumer costs will go down. Utilities and power brokers then may look for the improved performance and greater efficiency offered by superconductivity. In the United States, a number of utilities servicing major cities such as Los Angeles are considering the mandated use of electric vehicles, which should result in an increased need for intracity electrical capacity. Energy-efficient superconducting electric power technology thus would be poised to move forward with the development and demonstration of SC power devices to dramatically improve the electric power industry.

It is anticipated that the power system of the future will look like the Advanced Power System shown in Fig. 1.1, p. 2, with widespread use of SC generators and motors, transmission, fault-current limiters, and SC energy storage.