Plans for the Coming Year

STUDIES UNDERWAY

As of February 1994, there are two WTEC and three JTEC studies in progress. In addition, the CERF study referred to above, in which JTEC/WTEC has collaborated, is nearing publication of its final report.

• The JTEC Panel on Advanced Manufacturing for Polymer Composite Structures in Japan released its full draft report in November 1993. This has now completed review by the panel's Japanese hosts and the JTEC/WTEC editor. Hosts' comments and editor's changes and markup are now under final consideration by the panel members. The JTEC/WTEC staff will be working with the panel in March and April 1994 to prepare the final report. We have completed review of the panel's executive summary, which therefore is included in this volume.

  It is interesting to note that this panel's conclusions regarding Japanese manufacturing in polymer composite materials closely parallel those of the electronic packaging panel with respect to electronics manufacturing. Both panels concluded that there is usually no "silver bullet" of superior technology that is the secret to Japan's manufacturing successes. Instead, these panels attribute this success to consistent, patient, even painstaking work to make evolutionary refinements in process technology and quality control, sensitivity to customer requirements, and the ability and willingness to make large, long-term, and often risky capital investments to develop and maintain high technology manufacturing infrastructure.

• The WTEC Panel on Research Submersibles and Undersea Technologies released its full draft report in October 1993. Because communications with the panel's hosts in Russia and Ukraine are slow, the hosts' review comments were still arriving at the JTEC/WTEC office as of this writing. The JTEC/WTEC staff and editor will be working with the panel to finalize its report in the spring of 1994. Review of the executive summary from that report has also been completed, and is included in this volume.
• The JTEC Panel on Micro-electro-mechanical Systems (MEMS) in Japan travelled to Japan in late September 1993, and held its workshop in Arlington, VA on November 17, 1993. The panel's draft site reports were reviewed by the Japanese hosts in December of 1993. The full draft report will be available in early April of 1994.
• The JTEC Panel on Electronic Packaging in Japan visited 12 major Japanese electronics manufacturers in October 1993. This panel held its workshop in Arlington, VA on January 12, 1994. The panel's draft site reports were reviewed by the Japanese hosts in January of 1994, and a full draft report is expected by April.
• The WTEC Panel on Advanced Display Technologies in Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus visited 38 sites in those countries in late October 1993. Draft site reports are now out for review by the hosts. A workshop was held on February 3, 1994 in Arlington, VA. As mentioned above, one of the notable contributions of this workshop was the contacts that it fostered between U.S. companies and researchers and representatives from the former Soviet Union.
• A new JTEC panel on optoelectronics is currently being organized. In addition to visiting Japanese organizations, plans are also being made to visit a number of U.S. companies -- including suppliers, technology companies, and system integrators. This extra effort will provide a better benchmark of U.S. activities against which to compare those in Japan. Plans are also being made to include an economist on this panel. This study has support from NSF, ARPA, Air Force, the Office of Naval Research, and the Departments of Commerce, State, and Energy.

PROSPECTIVE FUTURE STUDIES

As of this writing, probable future JTEC and WTEC studies are, in order of likelihood, software practices in Japan, man-machine interface (including virtual reality and speech recognition) in Japan, environmentally responsible manufacturing (Japan), metal casting technology (Europe and Japan), research submersibles technologies in Japan and Eastern Russia, avionics (Japan), and medical instrumentation.

The studies on software practices, man-machine interface, environmentally responsible manufacturing, and metal casting technology are probable, but scope and funding details have yet to be finalized. The other topics listed above are somewhat preliminary, since funding is still being organized.

HOW TO INITIATE A JTEC OR WTEC STUDY

Up to now, funding for JTEC and WTEC studies has been drawn exclusively from agencies of the Executive Branch of the U.S. government. Most recent studies have involved funding from three or more agencies working in collaboration with NSF, the lead agency. NSF works with the interested agencies to find common ground for a detailed statement of the study's scope. This work statement becomes the basis for inter-agency agreements, in which contributing agencies transfer funds to NSF in return for NSF undertaking responsibility for the performance of the study. NSF in turn puts these funds into its Cooperative Agreement with Loyola College, under which Loyola carries out the study.

Because of the diversity of interests among contributing agencies (see list of sponsors in Appendix I), a certain amount of negotiation is usually required at the outset of a study in order to arrive at a study scope that satisfies the requirements of all contributors. This is usually accomplished through one or more planning meetings at NSF, in which potential sponsors present their requirements and develop a consensus scope, identify a suitable chair for the panel, and discuss other potential candidates for panelists.

The contact person at NSF for JTEC and WTEC studies is:

Paul Herer
Senior Advisor for Planning & Technology Evaluation
Engineering Directorate
National Science Foundation
Room 505.13, Stafford Place
4201 Wilson Blvd.
Arlington, VA 22230
(703) 306-1303 (W)
(703) 306-0289 (FAX)
electronic mail: pherer@nsf.gov